Metric loss

Packers RB AJ Dillon ranked first in pass rate metric

The Green Bay Packers have often referred to their two running backs as two “RB1s”. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon would likely be the starters for many NFL teams. The fact that they’re in the same backfield in Green Bay makes Packers fans extremely lucky. We’ve all seen what Jones can do out of the backfield but also in the receiving game. He has proven to be one of the most versatile guards in the NFL. Yet, it still feels like we’re only scratching the surface of what Dillon might be capable of. However, this stat from last season (2021) shows how much of an impact he can have.

AJ Dillon was the most “successful” running back in 2021 by this metric:

Success rate of football underdogs the metric is very detailed, but very precise. A first and 10th run that gains more than 4 yards is a win (or a successful run); a first and 10th run that gains 3 yards is a loss. A second run that gets at least half of the remaining yardage is a win (or success), as is any third run that repeats the first run.

Dillon’s pass rate was 63%, the best in the NFL. His ability to continually get four and five yards was a big plus for an offense that converted a league-high 90.95 from time on third-and-first.

What will Dillon’s workload be in 2022?

Dillon’s 187 carries were good enough for 20th in the NFL. With the obvious need for Green Bay to run the ball in 2022, coupled with the fact that Jones could be used even more in the passing game, Dillon should see that number increase.

Dillon averaged 4.2 yards per carry last year. If he (and his quads) maintain that average, but see his carries drop from 187 to 250 (which would likely be top 10 in the league), Dillon would easily clear 1,000 yards. Dillon put himself on the map in Green Bay. However in 2022, he could put himself on the NFL map.