The CEO of leading on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant says a metric is flashing a massive red flag for Bitcoin (BTC) bulls.
Ki Young Ju tells his 292,600 Twitter followers that historical data shows Bitcoin could drop as low as $14,000.
“So here’s some hopium for the bears.
If BTC crashed so hard due to the macroeconomic crisis and all Bitcoiner institutions plunged, it could cost $14,000 based on the historical maximum drawdown.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is down 3.58% and priced at $29,240. A move to the analyst’s bearish price target suggests a 52% downside risk for BTC.
According to the quantitative analyst, newer Bitcoin investors are likely to be underwater if market prices fall into its worst-case scenario.
“Bitcoin’s worst-case maximum drop.
Beginners down 67%.
Had a bear cycle – down 39%.
Experienced two bearish cycles – guaranteed profit.
Experienced three bearish cycles – guaranteed profit.
Today, newbies who joined last year are down -34%. »
Next Ki Young Ju provides the average entry price for each generation of Bitcoin investors over its 11-year history by tracking the UTXO age bracket metric, which tracks the potential price level where long-term holders have accumulated BTC.
#Bitcoins OG Admission Price:
1st Generation – $1.3
2nd generation – $653
3rd Generation – $8,717
4th Generation – $43,582
I am the 3rd generation. Hang in there, 4th generation. pic.twitter.com/iWkEwFO4zV
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) May 14, 2022
The analyst also recently observed that institutional investors are now the dominant force in Bitcoin trading.
“Retail investors are exiting the crypto market. Not bad for accumulating bitcoin from institutions, but still worried about the overall volume, which is down significantly from last year.
The CEO of CryptoQuant then takes a look at the leading smart contract platform Ethereum (ETH). He strong points that the ETH ecosystem remains strong despite a massive price drop due to strong interest in new blockchain niches like decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), and play-to-earn blockchain games (GameFi).
“The price of ETH fell -56% from the peak, but the number of active addresses just fell by 7%.
If we consider each address as a user, Ethereum today has 551,705 DAUs (Daily Active Users).
These degens do not care about the price of ETH but are into DeFi, NFT, DAO and GameFi projects.
Ethereum is also down 2.57%, changing hands for $1,965.
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Featured Image: Shutterstock/kilshieds