Bitcoin (BTC) is having fun with what some call a “bear market rally” and gained 20% in July, but the movement in value remains complicated for analysts.
Heading into July’s monthly close, the Puell A exited its backcourt, raising hopes that the worst of the losses could also come before now.
Puell Several attempt to cement breakout
The Puell A number of one of the best-known on-chain Bitcoin metrics. It measures the value of bitcoins mined on a given day against the value of those mined before three hundred and sixty-five days.
The number that follows is used to know if the silver mined for a day is particularly high or low compared to the 12 month average. From this, miner profitability can be inferred, along with more normal conclusions about how overbought or oversold the market is.
After hitting ranges that historically accompanied macro lows, the Puell One is now aiming for an increase – which has historically been seen first in macro uptrends.
“Based primarily on historical information, the breakout from this zone was accompanied by bullish momentum in the value chart,” Grizzly, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, wrote. in one of the agency’s many “Quicktake” market updates on July 25. .
The number of shouldn’t be the only inexperienced flashing sign in today’s situations. As Cointelegraph reported, hoarding traits among hodlers also suggest that the macro back is already present.
“Unprecedented macroeconomic situations”
After its rebound from shock aid in the second half of this month, Bitcoin is now close to six-week highs and largely a new macro low.
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As sentiment moves out of the “worrying” zone, market watchers are pointing to distinctive phenomena that make the 2022 bear market extremely difficult to predict with certainty.
In another of its current “Quicktake” analysis items, CryptoQuant noted that even the value trendlines are not expected to run as smoothly this time around.
In particular, BTC/USD has crisscrossed its realized level of value several times over the past few weeks, which has not happened in previous bear markets.
The realized value is the average at which BTC provides the final move, and currently sits at just under $22,000.
“Realized value signaled market lows in previous cycles,” CryptoQuant explained.
“Most importantly, bitcoin’s value has not crossed the realized value threshold in the last two durations (134 days in 2018 and seven days in 2020). But, since June 13, it has crossed this degree three times forwards and backwards, which shows the individuality of this cycle due to unprecedented macroeconomic situations.
These situations, as reported by Cointelegraph, come in the form of forty-year highs in inflation in the United States, rampant price hikes by the Federal Reserve and, more recently, alerts that the US economy went into recession.
In addition to realized value, meanwhile, Bitcoin has shaped an unusual relationship with its 200-week moving average (MA) in this bear market.
While generally holding it as support with temporary dips, BTC/USD managed to tip the 200-week MA at resistance for the first time in 2022. It currently sits at around $22,800, according to exposures Cointelegraph Markets Professional and TradingView.
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