Metric analysis

Buccaneers Tom Brady Top 5 in New NFL Winnings Share Metric

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady has had his fair share of wins over the years, both in the regular season and in the playoffs.

But how many victories can be directly attributed to him, personally?

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That’s a question some may never want to answer, those of the “wins aren’t a quarterback stat” variety. of which I am a part.

But it’s an interesting question to ponder nonetheless: can victories be attributed to individual players?

Maybe not completely, but their contributions could certainly be measured, couldn’t they?

If they can, it will have to be discovered by someone much smarter than me.

Enter Cynthia Frelund, an NFL Network analytics expert who recently created a measure of win share in football.

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“I created a metric that measures the contribution of each player, position group and side of the ball for each snap in an NFL season,” Frelund explains. “I call it WIN SHARE to reflect the fact that 11 players work together on the pitch for each team at any given time, which means the ‘share’ part is a very big factor – and interconnecting has taken a lot of time to model.”

Frelund goes into more detail about how the math goes as she determines which NFL players contribute the most to their team’s success, but let’s cut to the chase.

Tom Brady walks away with a 6.22 win share, ranking fourth among all quarterbacks and behind Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills, 6.56), Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers, 6.45) and Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs, 6.39).

“While there is more pressure on Brady this season, that shouldn’t stop the 45-year-old from performing at an extremely high level,” Frelund writes. “There may be fewer through passes early in the season, but the potential for first downs and touchdowns drives the fourth-highest share of wins among quarterbacks.”


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