Metric loss

Bitcoin Rally Stops at $39,200, But BTC Price Measurement Suggests Local Low May Be Here

Bitcoin (BTC) checked its latest advance at Wall Street’s open on Feb. 23 as repercussions from Russia continued to reverberate.

BTC/USD 1 hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: Trading View

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Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD falling back towards the $38,000 mark on February 23, after hitting highs of $39,200 previously.

Pressure from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict remained an ever-present threat to equities, with which Bitcoin and altcoins are closely correlated.

The S&P 500 traded down 0.25% in its first hour, while Russia’s MOEX index continued its heavy losses from Feb. 23, down another 7.3% at the time of trading. writing.

The Russian ruble continued its decline in stages, accelerating past 80 to the dollar following news that the UK was preventing Russian companies from clearing in dollars or sterling.

With a lot of uncertainty in the air, market players looking for short-term shots had to constantly re-evaluate their approach.

“I’m bullish for BTC over the next few months,” Blockware chief analyst William Clemente tweeted the same day of the longer-term macro prognosis.

“Strong on-chain holding behavior coupled with lots of relative dry powder sitting on exchanges, supply-side stacking in order books and an extended regime of spot premium over perps. Mars will be here next week, the ferocity maximum is probably taken into account.”

Regarding Bitcoin continuing to track global stocks, Ki Young Ju, CEO of on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, argued that this is not bad news for those hoping that Bitcoin would decouple to become an asymmetric hedge against global uncertainty.

“Good news: BTC is being embraced by traditional institutions. Its ownership is changing to new players trading stocks. Bad news: BTC is not a safe haven. moment,” he said. abstract.

Supply Delta hints at possible price reversal

Turn to on-chain metrics, however, and Bitcoin looked decidedly more promising, as Clemente hinted.

Related: “You Better Buy Bitcoin” – BTC Numbers Challenge Canadian Government as ETF Assets Hit All-Time High

On Feb. 23, the focus was on the supply delta measure, which examines the portion of BTC supply held by short-term and long-term holders, respectively.

Its creator, Capriole founder Charles Edwards, Remarks that while “not perfect”, Supply Delta was able to at least call some local price highs. As of this week, it was printing a bottom for the long-term holder share, which traditionally appears around price lows.

Long-term holders are defined as holdings with no selling in the past 155 days, while short-term holders are selling the opposite during that time.

Price highs appear to immediately follow short-term supply highs.

“On the supply side, this suggests Bitcoin is in a major accumulation zone,” Edwards commented.

Annotated Bitcoin supply delta chart. Source: Charles Edwards/Twitter