Metric loss

Bitcoin bear market is over, metric indices as BTC exchange balances hit 4-year low

Bitcoin (BTC) can already start its new macro bullish trend if historical “hodl” patterns repeat.

This was the conclusion of the research on the latest data covering the supply amount of BTC that has been dormant for a year or more as of July 2022.

Hodled BTC hints that the bear market is over

According to independent analyst Miles Johal, who posted the results to social media on July 29, a “round-top” formation in “hodled” BTC is coming to an end.

Once this is the case, price should react – as many times before.

The clue lies in Bitcoin’s HODL Waves metric, which breaks down supply based on each Bitcoin’s last move. A year or more ago – the 1-year HODL wave – currently reflects the majority of supply.

The attached chart from Johal shows that the higher the proportion of global supply that is stationary for at least one year, the closer BTC/USD is to a macro low.

More importantly, however, a slowdown in the year-over-year HODL wave – indicating that the accumulation is calming down – followed by the start of a reversal has always occurred at the start of a new long-term BTC price uptrend. .

This “rounded top” chart phenomenon is therefore strongly seen as a potential source of hope, with Bitcoin already making up for lost ground.

In the comments, Johal argued that few had paid attention to HODL Waves.

Bitcoin 1 Year + HODL Wave Annotated Chart. Source: Miles Johal/Twitter

Foreign exchange balances at their lowest since 2018

Separate data from on-chain analytics company Glassnode, meanwhile, Underline Bitcoin’s current trend of exiting exchanges.

Related: Bitcoin’s Bull Run ‘Gets Interesting’ as BTC Price Hits 6-Week High

BTC in exchange wallets now represents just 12.6% of overall supply, down from 4.6% of overall supply since the March 2020 crash, staff noted.

In terms of BTC, the figure is 2.4 million BTC now compared to 3.15 million BTC in March 2020. The number is the lowest since July 2018.

BTC balance on the exchange chart. Source: Glassnode

Earlier this month, Cointelegraph reported on the trend of accelerating coin withdrawals from exchanges.

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