Metric loss

ESPN’s FPI metric highest on Noles in 2022

The 2022 FSU football schedule doesn’t seem as daunting as what the Noles faced in 2021.

According to ESPN’s FPI metric, the Noles will have the 30th toughest schedule. The 2021 schedule ranked No. 20 nationally, and the Noles check in with a No. 31 ranking for the 2022 season.

Six of the teams on the program appear higher on the REIT 2022 pre-season standings:

  • Clemson-No. 3
  • LSU-No. 11
  • Miami-No. 18
  • Florida-No. 25
  • NC State-No. 26
  • Wake Forest-No. 30

ESPN’s FPI metric predicted the Noles would win 6.1 games and a 65.4 percent chance of winning six games and going to a bowl game last season.

The 2022 projection is for the Noles to win 7.1 games and an 84.5% chance of winning six games and going to a bowling game.

Clemson is the only team to finish in the top 10 of the 2021 FPI Final Rankings. NC State was No. 16, Wake Forest was No. 22, Miami was No. 23, Florida was No. 34, and Louisville was No. 46 , ahead of FSU, which was No. 51.

Other Notable FBS 2022 REIT Rankings:

  • Louisville-No. 36
  • Boston College-No. 59
  • Syracuse-No. 62
  • Georgia Tech-No. 67
  • Louisiana-No. 72

The Noles open with Duquesne in what should be a win before heading to a neutral-site game against LSU, where they’ll be close to a touchdown betting underdogs.

If we look at the FPI projections alone, FSU should be favored in six of their games, and likely underdogs or corner flips in the other six. FSU will need to pull off at least one upset without suffering an upset loss itself to reach the seven-win mark.

LSU, Miami and Florida have new coaching staffs and roster turnover, so I’m not sure their rankings should be that high. Anyway, these stats tell me that FSU football has a chance to change the trajectory of the program, if they win the games they should win and win a few draw games, or games where they will be lightweights underdogs.